Tuesday, September 5, 2017
Win on a football accumulator
It´s no wonder why many soccer bettors get attracted to the high odds of combining several bets into one large odds bet and try to win on a football accumulator.
The problem is, that we minimize our chance of winning significantly as soon as we put more than one bet into the bet slip, plus the fact, that we often are overly optimistic in terms of results before a match starts. We must never forget the human nature and the random occurrences of the soccer game. What will often happen to an accumulator, is that we either get very close, miss that one goal or get a late draw or on the other hand get one match all wrong.
Just yesterday I watched France draw 0-0 with Luxembourg as 1.01 favorites on home soil, so just a quick reminder that everything and anything can and will happen in ANY match.
”Year, but the high odds will make sure that I win on accumulators in the long term”, some will say. It can be done and for some it works as a betting strategy. But most bettors know that finding a single winner at odds 2.0 can be difficult enough from time to time.
So the question is. If we are going to do an accumulator how should we approach it?
Number of bets on your football accumulator
Combining low odds favorites
Many fall into the trap of throwing 10 low odds favorites (i.e. under odds 1.2) into a weekend accumulator. The problem with this is, that we only get low combined odds, compared to the chance of one of these favorites drawing or losing.
If for instance, we take 10 low odds favorites at odds 1.2 and combine them into an accumulator, we get odds of 6.19. Not bad. Very bad. There are 10 chances that this bet will be ruined and some crazy defender from League 2 goes on and scores two goals for an away team. Just saying. Because something like that will most likely happen when you put too many matches on your bet slip.
That said, I´ve heard of people who take the five strongest favorites from the strongest leagues (i.e. Serie A, Premier League, Bundesliga 1, La Liga) and combine wins for the likes of Chelsea, Juventus, Real Madrid, Roma and Liverpool on a given weekend. This could work if you do your research properly.
But in general. The higher the amount of matches, the higher the chance of the accumulator going down. Simple. So we want to avoid doing that.
Going for higher odds and fewer matches
Instead, we could try to combine 2-3 matches with pretty high odds, for instance, 1.6 – 2.0 and get combined odds between 4.0 - 8.0.
In order to achieve these odds, we will have to look for the likes of winners in the win market that are strong favorites, but not so much that they can´t lose. Or matches that go BTS, which can be tricky, or matches that will go over 2.5 goals. Or other more sophisticated bets like corner or cards bets or teams to win/both teams to score bets for instance. All of the above types of bets have quite a big risk of not coming in, no matter what the stats say.
-There is never no guarantee of three goals in any match and for a match to go over 2.5 goals.
-Both teams scoring can be pretty hard to hit.
-Teams to win at say odds 1.8 only have 55.6% chance of winning when converting the odds into probabilities.
I´m not trying to be negative here. Off course it is possible to combine three bets like the above and get a win. Some people are just able to catch these odds time and time again like Karate Kid catches flies with chop sticks. But the question is: How often can we create a winning bet? We need to do a bit of calculation to see the real potential of this type of bet.
Let´s use the above types of bets for a fictional accumulator:
Pick 1: Over 2.5 goals at odds 2.0 = 50% probability of winning.
Pick 2: Both teams to score at odds 1.7 = 58.82% probability of winning.
Pick 3: Team to win at odds 1.8 = 55.6% probability of winning
If we look at the combined percentages for a win on all the above three bet types, which is by multiplying the percentages because they are interdependent, we get a 16.4% chance of winning this accumulator in terms of probability.
As we get odds of 6.12 we need to win 1 in 5 to stay on top but the probability only suggests that we will win 1 in 6, which would make for an overall loss.
Finding the middle way
So back to being realistic, considering the potential of things that can go ”wrong” in a football match and ruin an accumulator.
As I have earlier suggested in my blog post ”Profit from football betting", we will most likely need to bet at odds over 2.0 to be profitable in the long term.
If you want to do accumulators to achieve these odds, you will need to minimize the risk of failure significantly by going for:
-A low number of matches for your accumulator, 2-3 maximum.
-Odds between 1.25 – 1.6
-Combined odds of maximum 3.0, preferably around odds 2.5.
Think about it. If you can win 50% of your accumulators around odds 2.5 in a month, you would be up by 7.5 points, which is a ROI of 25%. That is, by all means, a very good return when talking soccer betting.
If you can manage to win 20 of 30 of these bets in a month, you would be up by 20 points, with a ROI of 66.6%.
So which kind of odds combinations and markets can we use to achieve these odds?
Using the right odds
Let´s firstly look at the odds. I don´t personally go below 1.25 as these odds do not ramp up the combined odds enough. Odds above 1.7 indicates that the bet could be in real danger of losing, looking at probabilities (not including knowledge of teams, value etc.). Below are a few examples to give you combined odds just around 2.5, using the 1.25 – 1.7 thresholds. I was actually quite amazed when I first saw how little it takes to achieve odds 2.5!
1.25 x 1.4 x 1.4 = 2.45
1.3 x 1.3 x 1.5 = 2.54
1.25 x 1.3 x 1.6 = 2.6
1.25 x 1.4 x 1.5 = 2.63
1.5 x 1.7 = 2.55
As you can see, we can do with just two bankers at low odds and a bet at odds 1.5 to get combined odds of 2.5, which by all means should be achievable. We can also choose two semi low bets at around 1.5 and 1.7 in combination.
There are plenty of markets to use for these types of bets and a little carefull daily study on one or more of these markets should give you an opportunity to profit in the long term. What I personally do for these kind of bets, is to use two small odds that I´m very sure will come in and only use one bet that have a bigger potential risk of failing.
Betting markets to use for your football accumulator
-Low odds home favorites to win below odds 1.4. Check on form and scoring ability.
-Double chance win/draw for a team that you think will absolutely not lose.
The teams win odds need to be around 1.8 – 2.0.
Low odds home favorites that can score 1.5 goals. This market is called 1.5 team goals. Look for the scoring ability for the home team vs. conceding ability for the away team.
Teams to score 0.5 goals. Look for strong underdogs that are good at scoring and favorites that are good at conceding.
Over 1.5 match goals.
Both teams to score. As mentioned, this can be a tricky bet.
Over 2.5 goals. Look for odds around 1.5 – 1.6, indicating that the teams will most likely produce over 2.5 goals. You can look at teams from Sweden, MLS matches in the states or the Scottish 1. and 2. divisions.
I always recommend sticking to one bet a day and only use small percentages of your bank at a time, maybe 2-3%.
The main thing is always to focus on a few things, to be consistent and to be disciplined.
Good luck with your betting!
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