Monday, December 17, 2018
What is the benefit of trading?
Trading has two very big advantages compared to normal betting.
1: Trading allows us to enter trades at favorable times in a match.
Let´s say that we found a football match were we, by looking at previous stats have gathered that there is an 80% chance of a first half goal. We can translate that chance percentage into odds of 1.25. This means, that we should be given odds 1.25 before the match starts on a first half goal to happen according to previous matches played by these two teams.
We all know that first half goal, when and if they happen, doesn´t necessarily arrives before 20 minutes of play or more. After 20-25 minutes of play, the odds for a first half goal will have risen to around odds 2.0 if the match is still 0-0.
We can now enter the trade at much higher odds than we should have been given, taking the statistical change into consideration. This means we got value.
There is less time to get the goal before halftime, but the statistics are still on our side.
Value is key to squeezing out some money from the football trading markets. We do not always win when we get value, but value should, by all means, ensure that we beat the market in the long-term.
2: Trading allows us to exit trades and reduce losses if a trade goes against us.
Let´s say we have backed Liverpool at odds 2.1 against Arsenal. Arsenal takes a 2-0 lead in the first half and Liverpool’s odds now rise to odds 10.0. We are now in a losing position where the lay odds on Liverpool are higher than the odds we backed at.
If we do not believe that Liverpool will come back and win the match we can exit the trade for loss, BUT a loss that is smaller than our full stake on the trade.
Finding the right matches to trade and finding winners are important, but reducing losses on trades that goes against you is even more important.
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