Thursday, August 3, 2017
Profit from football betting
It´s a fact that only around 2-5% of all bettors make consistent money from football betting. So what is it that make most people fail and only a few profit from football betting?
I certainly had my bumpy rides over the years and have lost quite a few bankrolls. Though this is absolutely normal when starting out with betting and learning the ropes, it tended to leave me with a bad feeling of lost time and lost money. Because I knew that I knew a lot about soccer, systems, and odds. I also knew that I couldn´t blame this or that result for my overall betting balance.
Through the years I have dwelled on the subject quite a lot, written down my thought processes and been able to obtain some valid advice from the best in the industry. In this blog post, I will tell you all you need to know to become profitable. At least in my opinion.
There are two ways you can go about your betting. Either by using a proven football betting system or by finding your own selections by looking for betting value or statistics. No matter how you do it, you do need to have some set rules and a framework for your betting.
On top of that, you need to add the betting tools that I will list below. If you are able to understand and apply the following, your future looks bright.
Football betting strategies
A proven betting system is a vital part of your tool box, especially when you are starting out. Systems are terrific for outlining what to bet on and when to bet. If you don´t have a betting system, you can go and look at these review sites for some options:
You can also go and have a look at my book "Betting on over 2.5 goals - The Ultimate Guide", to find some easy to navigate betting systems.
Number of systems
You don´t need many systems. There are so many markets and matches to bet on and my over all point is that you need to avoid to let yourself bet on anything and everything. In my humble opinion, it is much better to only use a few. Why? Because it means that you keep your focus on a few things. Focus leads to prosperity. Containing your activities is vital. Less is more. If you want to read about how I handle my betting you can read it in this blogpost "My betting portfolio".
Finding your own football predictions
When you get more experienced, you will have obtained a lot of knowledge that you can eventually use to make a decision on a bet. That is just fine, as long as you have some rules around it.
For instance, I will always look at the top teams from Serie A, La Liga, Bundesliga 1 and Premier League every weekend. I will then look at either the over 2.5 goal market, the over 2.5 goal/BTS market or the asian handicap market for bets. I will then go through a lot of data and make a small list of really strong selections. I evaluate the selections again and make my choices.
My betting rules are the leagues and markets I use, but the key thing is that I stick to the same process weekend after weekend. I will soon release a blog post that shows you how I find my personal bets.
Value is a concept where you are looking for odds that a higher than the corresponding chance of an event happening. You can use value as a system on it´s own or use it as an underlying concept. Always try to hunt down for betting value. As they say. "If you find value, the winners will take care of themselves". Meaning, that we have an edge, no matter the result, and that this edge, should be profitable for us in the long run. You can read more about value in my forthcoming article.
Number of bets
When finding your own football predictions you can easily end up with to many betting selections. The maximum number of bets that I will take on a given day is three. My rule of thumb is: If I can´t remember what I´m betting on and if I´m not able to name these bets rapidly by heart, I´m doing too much. Besides, from my own experience, I was always more profitable when keeping my betting selections to a mimimum.
Getting in a the right odds
A proven system or selection process will dictate what odds you should bet at. If the track record for the system is good, it will be OK to bet at odds below 2.0, as long as the strike rate for the system is high enough to justify using these odds.
But in general, try to make sure that you bet above odds 2.0. When I take into account all the profitable services, bettors and traders I´ve come across through the years, 95% of these have used odds above 2.0. You need to win more when you win than you lose when you lose. In reality, it´s pretty simple. The risk to reward should be positive.
You should always have a bankroll set aside for betting that you can afford to lose. I personally only use max 2-2% of betting bank on any bet. Protecting your bank by using small percentages is of utmost importance.
Always start out with small stakes. Forget the money. Try to focus on your rules and on being consistent.
I read a quote from a famous traders that said that "there are only very few that are capable of making it in the betting/trading industry, because there are only very few that are prepared to go slow". Especially with soccer you should not expect a higher return on investment than 10% on a monthly basis. Maybe even less. The thing is, that accumulated profits and higher stakes as you go a long will make for some significant profits over time, if you are consistent in your efforts. But we need to be realistic when we start out.
Now we are at the point, where we need to discuss the psychological effects of betting. The above are all logic to our conscious parts of the brain. But the opportunities that we are handed from the long list of matches on a given day and the endless number of markets to bet on represents the ultimate challenge.
I don´t know how many times I went through my daily selection process and came up with what I thought was a splendid new betting idea half an hour later. Meaning that I would completely overwrite the rules that I´ve set up, further creating chaos in my spreadsheet and my whole setup and expected return of investment (ROI).
The rules we have set up are there for a reason. Firstly because we have calculated some kind of return from the use of our rules, secondly because the rules should prevent us from irrational, unplanned betting that will harm our return.
Betting has everything to do with a calculated long-term return of investment and following your rules. EVERYTHING.
Keep doing the same thing consistently over and over again on the same proven system or betting selection process and you will be rewarded.
Patience and discipline
Ohh, that old mean thing. Yes. When talking about betting, THIS IS THE THING TO PRACTICE. Mental practice. Sweet lord. When betting, we actually don´t need to do that much. We just need to be precise on a few things, go out and leave it. Again, when observing the best bettors and traders around, they only take a few well-researched bets/trades on a daily basis, working consistently from their set of rules.
The hard part in betting is to LEAVE THINGS OUT. Which is what you must do if you want to get anywhere.
If you are anything like me, when looking on the list of daily matches, you will begin to see betting options left, right and centre. It´s normal. As betting is linked to the possibility of earning money and freedom, our brain is wired to see opportunities on a list of matches.
Problem is, we often see opportunities that aren't there. Or don´t hold up. Or make up for losses. It´s the get rich quick bug. Have you ever had that kind of "betting noise" running in your head? This is why we need our rules. We need them to overwrite the endless temptations within betting. And we need to rehearse them and stick to only those.
Not leaving things out mean that we can bet on anything, anytime and make bad half researched decisions on markets or systems we don´t now anything about. It leads to nowhere. Believe me.
Another enemy of the state is having too much time. You settled your bets and now there are six hours to kick-off. Six hours to look at the match list again. I lost count of all the times when I should have stopped waiting and just gone for a walk, done something else. Lived my life.
Now the thing is. Betting is all about waiting. Waiting for opportunities. Waiting for kick-off. Waiting for goals to be scored. We are raised to "do" to achieve. In this field, we have to wait, which is both tough, counterintuitive and leaves plenty of time for irrational decisions.
Bottom line is, that patience is key. Because without patience, you will lose focus and the discipline to abide by your rules.
The ability to be patient is the ability to wait for correct opportunities to arise. If you can make this a skill and let it go hand in hand with a well-proven system and just follow your rules consistently, you will be a winner in the long run.
Use a proven system or selection process
Be consistent in your efforts
Good luck with your betting!
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