Sunday, April 7, 2019

Football betting and fear of losing



In this article, I will try to explain how you can minimize the pressure you will inevitably feel from losing bets. In reality there are two scenarios to deal with:


  • 1: Either you have a solid portfolio and are operating from a professional mindset. If you do so, losers will still bother you, but I will try to change your mindset on how you perceive those losses.
  • 2: You are not operating professionally. The losers still effects you, but the main problem is your approach to how you operate that is not professional and consistent.


But let´s start at the beginning. Like many, I do not like losing and I always used to be a little nervy when putting on a bet. Because I knew if the bet lost, I was inclined to a certain pathway of thinking afterwards.


Losing a bet often trickers a lot of emotions and negative thoughts and self blaming. Typical thought patterns for me has been, "Am I good enough at betting in general?", "Am I wasting my time?", plus the bad feeling of having lost money. 


The good news is that we have to lose in order to win in the long-term. Losing is not all together a bad thing and there are many ways you can use your losers to improve. Especially the way you perceive a loser. Ask yourself the following:


Was it a good bet or a mediocre bet that lost? The question is important. If you placed a mediocre bet that lost, you need to upgrade your performance before placing bets and if you placed a good bet that lost, you might just need to change the way you perceive the loser, after the match has finished.



A good bet that loses


If you have done your research properly and there were every chance in the match for your bet to come in but it just didn´t for some reason, why feel bad about it? You got a confirmation that you were on the right path and next time you might just hit it home.


As an example you could lay the correct score late in a Barcelona match, because Barcelona almost always score late in a match. But sometimes they don´t. Was it a wrong bet? Probably not. If you followed your plan and stuck to your leagues and strategies you actually made a controlled effort and your bank should be there to protect you, if you use small enough stakes at a time.


Furthermore, a losing bet always gives you a chance to evaluate what or if you did (something) wrong and where you can improve:

  • Did you follow your plan, using proven strategies and your leagues of choice?
  • Did you look for every angle you could think of?
  • Did you re-evaluate the bet, meaning that you went through your reasoning for taking the bet more than once?
  • Are the filters you use for letting a selection pass for a bet clear enough and sharp enough?


Thing is, the bottom line is the difference in profit between your wins and your loses at the right odds size over a given period of time, that you set yourself. You can not win without losing. Take the losses with the wins and keep on reading.


Below I will show you an example of just exactly why you should not be too bothered with the losers.



A mediocre bet that loses


This is a hole different ball game, because it could mean that you did not research the bet properly or simply lack a strategy or approach to what you are doing.


It could also mean that you were undisciplined and impatient and took a bet for the sake of betting.


These issues, too me, are much more severe. If you are not in some sort of control of what you are doing, then there is absolutely no chance of making a profit from betting. If taking mediocre bets is an issue for you, then create a plan for yourself and rehearse being consistent with that plan. Working on these areas comes before everything else. Learn to be patient and learn to leave bets out.



Losing put into view


Now comes the part I have really been looking forward to write. I need to give you a little insight before I drop my point: I recently came across a new football service that of course offered me the whole world and more. But the thing was, I was actually a little intrigued with this service for more than one reason:


  • I could see from their previous results that they only used five top leagues for their bets. That is a huge quality stamp for me, as they had chosen to narrow their research to only a few quality leagues. Focus is always good inside betting and less is often more.
  • I could also tell that they consistently used matches including the top teams from these five leagues for their bets. 
  • The service only used 2-3 betting markets and the biggest ones, win bets and over and under 2.5 goals. Again a superb, clear approach when looking for selections, narrowing down your research. If you have read my book "Betting on O 2.5 goals -  The Ultimate Guide", you will know that the O 2.5 market is complex is enough in itself. 2 - 3 markets to research over 5 leagues are perfect. You do not need more.
  • The bets from the service were consistently using the same odds range from individual matches combining these odds into double and trebles. Most odds were around 1.5, stretching to odds 1.2 in the low end and odds 1.7 in the high end. 


So all in all there were a very precise frame for the bets from this service, targeting strong leagues, strong teams and narrowing down the markets to research and using certain odds ranges.


So here comes the good part.


From the test spread sheet from the service I found 70 doubles averaging odds 2.4. I also found 50 trebles averaging odds around 2.9. 120 bets taken in 2 month, averaging 2 a day, making a profit of +50 points. The number of bets are exact, but the odds are averages, pretty close averages to the odds given in the sheet.


The service had won 43 of 70 doubles, hitting a strike rate of 61.4%. This means that they lost 27 doubles. If we say that every double was at odds 2.4 (some were higher some lower) and we would stake 10 GBP on each bet, we would win 14 GBP x 43 = 602 GBP. We then need to subtract 27 losing doubles x 10 GBP = 270 GBP. In the end we would make 332 GBP or 33.2 points profit from those doubles.


For the trebles the service won 26 of 50 bets with a strike rate of 52.0%. They lost 24 trebles. But at odds around 2.9 this still makes for a handsome profit of 254 GBP or 25.4 points profit. 


From the above you can see that you can still lose 51 bets out of 120, which is a staggering 42.5% of all bets, and still come out with a profit of more than 50 points in two months.


Firstly we would of course need to be able to hit that strike rate. Secondly we would also need to take the combined odds above 2.0 into account to hit this return. BUT this was an example from real life. And it clearly shows that you need to:


  • Look at your bets over a given period of time before you can judge your results. Refrain from judging your day to day profit or losses. Being emotionally attached to daily results will drive you mad.
  • Accept that losers are a part of betting and that winning materializes from engaging over a longer period of time, IF you are consistent enough and disciplined enough. Fact is, you can not win without losing, the above example shows that clearly. It is build into betting and we need to learn to deal with the negative emotions that can surface when we lose. In fact a couple of losing bets is your means to win long-term. Hopefully.


I, of course, heavily considered to join this service. But I wont pay anybody for tips and furthermore, by analyzing the previous results, I could easily start my own small series of bets with a separate bank, which I did. I had 3 wins out of 4 so far with a ROI of 128%, early days, but worth giving it a go. 



Final words


The service got my attention for the sole reason that I could see, that there were a strict setup and some rules behind the bets and that it clearly seemed to work. In the sheet that I saw, there were many no betting days. The rules seemed to be followed and so did the results. 


Focusing on a small area, rehearsing consistency and leaving bets out when there are no bets to be had is the way forward. I am sure that you and I would be much better off profit wise, if we simply took less bets and only allowed ourselves to engage, when the market give us the absolute strongest opportunities. 


As always, bet responsibly and give it your absolute best and make the time you spend on betting worthwhile.





Lowkeysoccerbetting is all about betting and trading the football goal markets. I have written three books. The first is on the over 2.5 goal market and how to bet on it. The other two is about trading goals. You can find all three in the menu on this webpage. I also send out newsletters with betting ideas and thoughts and have written blog posts on the goal markets and other subjects like odds, betting strategies, consistency and discipline, which you can dive into.

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